Human development at the cost of the environment?-an application of planetary pressures-adjusted human development index in the lens of planetary boundaries.

Abstract

The human development index (HDI) was an important step toward a more human-oriented assessment of socioeconomic prosperity. Nevertheless, at the onset of the anthropocene, the environmental pillar of sustainable development is indispensable. This work aims to understand this conundrum of human development and its environmental cost or pressure through the use of the planetary pressures-adjusted human development index (PHDI) as well as introduce another modified version, planetary pressures, and inequality-adjusted human development index (PIHDI). PHDI incorporates two biophysical consumption-based indicators (CO2 emissions and material footprint, MF) as a proxy of environmental pressures into traditionally socioeconomic development-focused HDI. This work spans 164 nations and 27years (1990-2016). Various statistical techniques such as Pearson's correlation, hierarchical clustering (HCA), generalised additive modelling (GAM), data envelopment analysis (DEA), linear regression, and ARIMA forecasting have been used to explore interrelationships, non-linearity, efficiency analysis, and future projections (up to 2030) and delve into two scenarios: high human development and for human development permitted only within the two planetary boundaries (PBs) (viz. climate change and material footprint) and their consequences when exceeded. Though most of the countries with high PHDI and PIHDI scores are from the global north and have a high income, it is also possible to attain human development (i.e. increase PHDI and PIHDI scores) without overexploiting biophysical resources. From 2016, human development scores could increase by 55-63% (climate change) or 30-46% (material consumption) within a safe operating space in 2030. Without the required focus on the environment, aiming for a superior score in PHDI and PIHDI could result in 43-58% (CO2 emissions) or 57-58% (material footprint) of countries that would exceed PB. Based on the outcome of this work, it can be recommended that governments and policymakers that it is well within the limits of feasibility as well as necessary to make human socioeconomic development aspire to sustainability to address the needs of humanity, while respecting the well-being of the surrounding biosphere.