How would the carbon tax on energy commodities affect consumer welfare? Evidence from China's household energy consumption system.

Abstract

Although carbon tax policies can effectively restrain energy consumption and reduce pollution, they will also affect the welfare of residents through a price mechanism. We explore the impact of energy price increases that are caused by possible carbon tax policies on the welfare of residents in China with a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) model. The estimated elasticities show that the income elasticity of coal demand is -0.741 for urban residents, compared to 0.392 for rural residents. The cross-price elasticity shows that China's residential energy consumption has moved up the clean energy ladder. Based on the above reliable elasticity estimates, the welfare effects are analyzed in the residential consumption system. The overall welfare loss for residents increases with the level of carbon tax. A carbon tax on all energy sources is a regressive policy for China, and when the carbon tax rate reaches the world average, of 30 USD/tCO2e, the welfare loss for low-income and high-income residents is 1.55% and 0.62% respectively. However, the separate imposition of carbon taxes on different energy sources shows the heterogeneity of the welfare impacts of carbon taxes. At the national and urban levels, the distribution effects of carbon taxes are regressive for coal, LPG, and electricity, progressive for gasoline, and distributional neutral for natural gas. In rural areas, however, the welfare distribution effect of the carbon tax on diesel, LPG, and natural gas are progressive, and the welfare effects of carbon taxes on electricity show an inverted U-shaped distribution. Our findings are conducive to the development of a differentiated carbon tax policy by the Chinese government.