How Will Iran Retaliate to a Strike on its Nuclear Facilities?

Abstract

The issue of a military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities to halt progress towards nuclear weapons is intensifying. This paper attempts to comprehend that possibility, along with its implications. It does not deal with the prospects for a military strike against Iran. But, since such an attack may take place, the present analysis inquires into the feasibility of non-nuclear, WMD-based Iranian retaliatory options, strategically and operationally, in case the attacker does not intend to eliminate those options, in conjunction with targeting nuclear facilities. Beyond the scope of this paper are the various ways to counter Iranian CBR weapons. This analysis supposes the absence of Iranian nuclear weapons at present. It is concluded that Iran endeavours to sustain rapid retaliatory capabilities by non-nuclear WMD in case its nuclear facilities are attacked. Iranian leaders also have the ability to choose to retaliate at once. A preemptive attack cannot focus exclusively on Iran's nuclear establishment. To be effective, it also must incapacitate Iranian CBR weapons, immediately before or in conjunction with the destruction of nuclear facilities.