The Case Against the Case Against Iran: Regionalism as the West's Last Frontier

Abstract

Iran's leaders have reasons for spurning Western offers of engagement over Iran's nuclear program. They cannot so easily spurn approaches from Turkey and Arab neighbors. Regional engagement should therefore be encouraged, especially by Russia and China, to build confidence in Iran's intention to respect its core Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligation and reduce anxieties that could prompt a regional nuclear arms race. Furthermore, a more rigorous analysis suggests Israel can afford to be restrained. Over the last seven years, the West has oscillated between persuasion and coercion in an attempt to resolve the questions raised by Iran's nuclear program, but to no avail. Recent developments have dashed Western hopes that the Iranian leadership would be ready to agree on comprehensive confidence-building in return for a settlement of historic differences. Since Washington's dismissal of a Turkish-Brazilian initiative in May 2010 to broker a deal over Tehran's nuclear ambitions, hopes of engagement between Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (UNSC) and Germany have been compromised, leaving the West no options other than a new round of sanctions or a military strike.1 Neither of these options is at all likely to deliver what the West wants: suspension of Iran's uranium activities. Furthermore, a military strike would provide justification for Iranian withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the manufacture of nuclear weapons.2 This break-down of the engagement process initiated by US President Barack Obama may turn out to be a blessing in disguise for the West, as the opposition movement that has emerged since Iran's disputed presidential elections in June 2009 has come out against the swap first mooted in Geneva on October 1, 2009. It would be politically awkward for the West to cut a deal which was unwelcome to the elements in Iranian society that appear most committed to Western ideals of democracy and respect for human rights.3 But, in any case, the collapse of engagement reflects two underlying failures of perception in Western capitals. First, the requirement of zero enrichment - the total suspension of Iran's nuclear activities - is unrealistic. The reality on the ground is that Iran will pursue in one form or another, and is entitled to do so as a party to the NPT. Second, few analysts in the US or Europe have been willing to reason from the premise that Iran's regional has been routinely exaggerated. Due to this exaggeration it has become an act of intellectual heresy to suggest that Iran does not intend to provoke Israel or other regional neighbors by acquiring nuclear weapons - whatever the rhetorical fanfare in Tehran. A less exaggerated assessment of Iran's intentions suggests that Iran's Muslim neighbors - Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia in particular - can be the key to a successful diplomatic solution. Regional engagement of Iran by its three regional peers may represent the last diplomatic avenue open to the international community, now that options other than sanctions and military strikes appear to have been exhausted. The ideal outcome from a new regional dynamic would be to position Iran alongside Japan and Brazil as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the NPT, trusted with the possession of an advanced uranium capability. Whether continued activities in Iran mean that Iran is a threat to the region, and by extension to international peace and security, is the argument that needs to be looked at anew. A regional approach would not face the same challenge as Western engagement (could the latter be revived): how to walk a tightrope between addressing human rights violations and giving moral support to the Iranian opposition on one hand, and engaging on nuclear issues with regime leaders on the other. The international community could harvest the benefits of Mideast realpolitik without the problematic interference of anti-Western sentiment, ever-present in Iran (at least among the political leadership). …