Abstract
Heating homes using gas boilers is incompatible with the UK’s target of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. One solution is to shift to heat pumps (HPs) supplied from decarbonised power plant, but this could place an unmanageable burden on the electricity supply network. National heat demand profiles depend on the heating patterns adopted by households which, in turn, depend on the type of heating system and its control. The largest data sets available, from around 6600 gas-heated homes and 600 homes with HPs, are used to create an empirical model of Great Britain’s (GB) half-hourly domestic heat demand. The model is used to estimate the annual half-hourly heat demand of the GB housing stock for both current and future weather conditions. The demand profile when using HPs is compared to the current profile for gas heating. In a cold year, the calculated total annual heat demand of a typical mix of ground source and air-source HPs was 422TWh, 8% greater for than for gas-heated homes. However, the peak heat demand of 157GW was 8% lower than for gas heating, and the maximum heat ramp rate of 21GW/h, 67% lower. These results are due to the different ways that households use gas boilers and HPs. The accurate modelling of heating patterns is necessary to achieve reliable predictions of national heat demand. Policy initiatives, financial incentives or other interventions that influence the daily pattern of HP usage could also have a marked and positive influence on the GB heat demand profile.
Highlights
Domestic space heating and water heating represents a significant energy demand and source of CO2 emissions in countries such as the United Kingdom1 (UK)
The heat demand profile if heat pumps (HPs) are adopted by all households is compared with the profile generated if all households have gas central heating, the results for which have been previously reported [35]
Had the model not accounted for the differences between the Renewable Heat Premium Payment (RHPP) sample and the Great Britain (GB) dwelling stock and population[20], the annual heat demand of HPs would have been underestimated by 15–20% (i.e. 15–20% lower than found here)
Summary
Domestic space heating and water heating represents a significant energy demand and source of CO2 emissions in countries such as the United Kingdom (UK). Around 80% of UK domestic space and water heating demand is supplied by gas boilers [7]. To achieve the aim of being zero-carbon by 2050[33], the UK must improve the energy efficiency of the dwelling stock and switch to heating using low or zero-carbon fuels[6]. Replacing gas boilers with heat pumps (HPs) powered by zerocarbon electricity is one technically possible and compelling option. The Committee on Climate proposes that 5.5 million HPs are installed in the UK by 2030 and 19 million by 2040[12]. The uptake of HPs would, increase the national annual elec-
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