Abstract
The increasing peak load caused by climate change is challenging the electricity system reliability, and an accurate forecast of peak load can provide necessary support for the infrastructure investment and resilience enhancement. To support China's long-term power system planning, this study estimates the response functions of annual peak loads to maximum temperatures in China and then predicts the future peak loads under different scenarios. Key findings are summarized as follows: (1) There is a significantly positive correlation between the provincial highest temperatures and peak loads in China, and an increase of highest temperature by 1 °C will, on average, rise the peak load by 0.385 GW (2) The impacts of maximum temperature on the peak load vary substantially among different regions, and the impacts are the most significant in the Eastern China region. (3) The adoption and penetration of air conditioners is an important channel to materialize the impacts from temperature change to peak load. (4) The national peak load is forecasted to reach between 3807 GW and 6815 GW by the end of this century, which will require an additional infrastructure investment of 275–617 billion yuan per year.
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