How universities study the future: A critical view

Abstract

Despite recent rapid advances in technology, a skilled workforce continues to play the most important role in the development of national economies. People’s roles as operators, managers, or innovators are rapidly evolving to meet changing social needs. Traditionally, universities and higher education (HE) systems have been responsible for supplying the required knowledge and human resources. However, in the modern world, the nature of these needs is constantly changing, and uncertainties are dominating the socioeconomic future. To address this need, many researchers have attempted to explore how HE can cope with future uncertainties and evolve as a social system, yet there is no comprehensive analysis of methodological guidelines that provide insights into how to develop HE future scenarios. To fill this gap, this research takes a deep literature review approach, conducted by the authors, to examine published and peer-reviewed studies in the area of HE scenario planning over the decade from January 2010 to 2023. This study investigates the exploration of plausible futures by research teams at three levels - global/international, regional/national, and local/university. The findings show that there is a lack of foresight knowledge, which increases the risk of failure exponentially over time. To address these shortcomings, this study proposes a framework for future studies, including environmental factors that will impact higher education and methodological recommendations to equip researchers for the challenges ahead. It also emphasizes the need to appreciate the complexity of HE systems and the role of wildcards and weak signals in shaping future disruptive trends. This research offers valuable guidance to researchers seeking to engage in scenario development for HE in the face of uncertainty.