How to promote the development of energy-saving and emission-reduction with changing economic growth rate—A case study of China

Abstract

This paper attempts to explore the evolvement rule of energy-saving and emission-reduction with changing economic growth rate based on a novel energy-saving and emission-reduction system with multi-variable constraints. Energy structure adjustment, economic growth rate, new energy technology progress and other constrained variables are introduced into the novel system with the aid of nonlinear dynamics. The dynamic behavior of the new system is discussed by means of nonlinear dynamics theory. The quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified based on the genetic algorithm-back propagation neural network. A scenario study of the actual system is carried out, and some valuable conclusions are presented. Energy structure adjustment is driven more by economic considerations according to China’s national conditions. Energy structure adjustment could perfectly control energy intensity, without obvious potential negative impact on economic growth. New energy technology progress has a better effect on controlling energy intensity, and the more mature the technology is, the better the effect is. Energy intensity is sensitive to economic growth rate. There is an optimal interval of economic growth rate, and energy intensity could be effectively controlled by adjusting corresponding constraint condition in this interval.