Research on the influence mechanism of carbon trading on new energy—A case study of ESER system for China

Abstract

This paper attempts to explore the influence mechanism of carbon trading on new energy based on a novel nonlinear energy-saving and emission-reduction system. The dynamics behavior of the novel system is discussed, and the existence of chaotic motion is approved by using digital simulation. With the aid of genetic algorithm-back propagation neural network, the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified according to Chinese statistics. The result of scenario analysis shows that carbon trading can drive the development of new energy under given conditions, the driving effect is closely related to a threshold. The mature carbon trading can control carbon emissions and energy intensity effectively. The more perfect carbon trading market can better promote the development of new energy when meets such constraints. Carbon trading and new energy are very sensitive to government control. Grasping the reasonable boundary of government and market is the key to realize sustainable development of carbon trading and new energy.