How to crack the impossible triangle of new energy coupled system——Evidence from China

Abstract

This paper employs a four-dimensional coupled dynamic system and combines actual data from China to analyze the intrinsic connections and dynamic changes among new energy, economy, carbon emissions, and energy storage. The study reveals that new energy development faces an impossible triangle dilemma, wherein energy reliability, economy, and low carbon are difficult to achieve simultaneously. Although economic growth promotes new energy utilization, new energy development may inhibit economy at the initial stage. The development of new energy can effectively reduce carbon intensity. There exists a conflict between economic growth and carbon reduction, and a part of economic growth needs to be sacrificed to realize carbon emissions reduction. Further research indicates that market mechanism and government regulation are crucial for solving the energy trilemma, requiring coordinated efforts to achieve the optimal solution for energy, economy, and environmental goals. It is recommended to dynamically adjust the policy and market mechanism intensity based on the new energy industry's development stage. Increase government subsidies in the early stages and gradually transition to market dominance in the mid-term while improving market mechanism. In the field of energy storage, guide its participation in the electricity market to achieve scale development.