How to achieve a win-win situation between economic growth and carbon emission reduction: empirical evidence from the perspective of industrial structure upgrading.

Based on the labor productivity index, this paper establishes a Difference in Difference model to study the impact of the Belt and Road initiative on China's industrial upgrading. Using the data at the municipal level from 2008 to 2019, quantitatively evaluate the net effect of the industrial structure upgrading of the “Belt and Road” initiative. On the basis and conclusion of the previous study, the level of economic growth is added to the did model as a new control variable to further confirm and test the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative and the level of economic growth on China's industrial structure upgrading. The study found that the "Belt and Road" initiative has promoted the upgrading of regional industrial structure, but it is mainly reflected in the upgrading of industrial structure, and its role in promoting the rationalization of industrial structure is not significant. The upgrading of industrial structure will promote the quantitative economic growth, not the qualitative economic growth.

The purpose of this research project is to deeply analyze how the innovation of carbon finance mechanism drives the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure to a more low-carbon, environmentally friendly and efficient mode at the provincial level. Under the new situation of global climate governance, carbon finance, as an innovative financial instrument and institutional arrangement, helps China's economy to develop in a green and sustainable way by guiding and allocating financial resources through the market mechanism. The project adopts provincial panel data analysis methods and double difference models to systematically examine the innovative practices of various carbon financial products (e.g., green credit, green bonds, carbon emissions trading, etc.) and their impacts on regional industrial structure. Specifically, we will explore how the carbon financial mechanism can effectively mobilize social capital to invest in the fields of clean energy, energy saving and consumption reduction, and circular economy, accelerating the development and growth of emerging industries; at the same time, we will analyze how it can act on the traditional high-carbon industries through price signals, motivate enterprises to increase technological research and development, reduce the intensity of carbon emissions, and promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. In addition, the project will also assess the interaction between government carbon emission reduction policies and carbon financial mechanisms, as well as the differences and effectiveness of different provinces in using carbon financial tools to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure, so as to provide strong data support and theoretical basis for the formulation of scientific and reasonable carbon financial policies and industrial restructuring strategies in various regions of China.

The problem of global climate change is a common problem faced by all countries, and developing countries will face heavier pressure to reduce carbon emissions while promoting economic development. China is currently in a period of economic transformation, and the contradiction of industrial structure upgrading is becoming more and more prominent. The unreasonable industrial structure has caused a large consumption of resources, hindering the optimal allocation of resources and affecting carbon emissions. Technological innovation is an important force to cope with environmental changes, promote economic growth, and improve comprehensive competitiveness. Can technological innovation achieve carbon emission reduction under industrial structure upgrading? In this paper, industrial structure upgrading, technological innovation, and carbon emissions are studied together, and the impact of industrial structure upgrading, technological innovation on carbon emissions is theoretically analyzed, as well as how industrial structure upgrading acts on carbon emissions through technological innovation. An empirical test is conducted using 30 provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2017, and it is found that industrial structure upgrading can reduce carbon emissions. An econometric analysis based on the mediating effect model finds that industrial structure upgrading has both a direct carbon emission reduction effect and a mediating effect of reducing carbon emissions through technological innovation, and the mediating effect of technological innovation in reducing carbon emissions remains significant in the regression analysis of sub-regions. Based on the research of this paper, it is suggested that the advanced development of industrial structure should be promoted, the rationalization of industrial structure should be promoted, the innovation development strategy should be firmly implemented, and the level of technological innovation should be promoted.

Currently, scientifically and reasonably specifying carbon emission reduction measures in the context of "double carbon" has become a common concern worldwide. China's administrative divisions have a notable impact on the formulation and implementation of relevant policies. Therefore the carbon emissions must be calculated accurately under China's administrative divisions at different scales. The spatiotemporal change characteristics of absorption and carbon emissions can provide scientific basis for the formulation of reasonable and differentiated carbon emission reduction policies in different administrative regions in China. To this end, this study used multi-source data such as remote sensing and statistics and integrated ecological models, statistics, and GIS space analysis and other methods to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic change characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon absorption at different administrative scales （provinces, cities, and counties） in China. The results showed that： ① The total carbon absorption of vegetation in China continued to increase from 2000 to 2021 and the average value gradually increased. Differences were observed in spatiotemporal changes in carbon emissions at different administrative scales. The spatiotemporal changes at smaller scales were more evident. Carbon emissions showed obvious spatial differences of "high in the north and low in the south, high in the east and low in the west." ② The spatiotemporal distribution of CPI at the administrative scale was similar to that of carbon emissions and the overall trend was increasing annually. The pressure of carbon emissions on carbon absorption gradually weakened from the east to the central and western regions. ③ Spatiotemporal hotspot analysis showed that the overall spatial distribution of cold and hot spots in China's carbon absorption was as follows： In the spatial pattern of "hot in the east and cold in the west," the spatial distribution of cold and hot spots of carbon emissions showed agglomeration characteristics. The provincial scale was primarily oscillating hotspot whereas municipal and county scales were majorly continuous hot spots. Further results revealed that： ① Carbon absorption in different regions and periods in China showed significant variability, especially in the central and eastern regions. The possibility of offsetting carbon emissions by increasing carbon absorption remains. ② At the same scale, administrative regions （such as different provinces） and lower-level administrative regions at another scale （such as different cities in the same province） showed varying degrees of variability in carbon absorption and carbon emissions. Therefore, taking provincial administrative regions as an example for subsequent formulation considering carbon trading, emission reduction, and other policies, we should first consider the coordination of emissions between different cities in the province and then consider the coordination between provinces, which is expected to better promote the implementation of relevant policies.

The heterogeneous role of green finance on industrial structure upgrading - Based on spatial spillover perspective

Carbon emission reduction is becoming a global issue. Methods of reducing carbon emissions in developing countries have become a hot topic of discussion. Based on the obvious structural transformation in developing countries, this paper discusses the logical mechanisms among industrial structure upgrading, green total factor productivity improvements, and carbon emission reduction. In addition, this paper empirically tests these relationships with provincial data from 2000 to 2017 in China. The conclusions are as follows: (1) industrial structure upgrades have a significant impact on carbon emissions. The industrial structure rationalization remains a noteworthy inhibition on carbon emissions. The industrial structure’s advancement has obvious features of development at the current stage, and its effect on carbon emissions shows an inverted “V” trend, which is initially accelerating but then restraining. (2) Upgrades to industrial structures will decrease carbon emissions by raising green total factor productivity. (3) The rise of green total factor productivity in a certain region will have a relatively obvious inhibitory effect on carbon emissions, but it will exhibit a negative spatial spillover effect on the adjacent areas.

Energy consumption and industrial activities are the primary sources of carbon emissions. As the “world’s factory” and the largest carbon emitter, China has been emphasizing the core role of technological innovation in promoting industrial structure upgrades (ISU) and energy efficiency (EE) to reduce carbon emissions from industrial production and energy consumption. This study investigated the mechanism (through ISU and EE) and spillover effect of technological innovation on carbon emission reduction using the panel dataset of 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2019 and spatial econometrics models. The study concluded that (1) technological innovation had a negative direct effect on provincial carbon emissions, while it also showed a spatial spillover effect on neighboring provinces; (2) technological innovation had an indirect effect on provincial carbon emissions reduction through the mediation of energy efficiency improvement, while the mediation effect of industrial structure upgrading is not yet significant; and (3) the effect of technological innovation on carbon emission reduction showed heterogeneity in the eastern, central, and western regions of China. This study provided empirical and theoretical references to decision-makers in China and other developing countries in promoting technological and carbon control policies. More specifically, direct technology investment and indirect investment in industrial structure upgrades and energy efficiency could help with regional carbon emissions reduction.

Carbon dioxide mainly comes from industrial economic activities. Industrial structure optimization is an effective way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This paper uses the panel data of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2019, uses the Theil index to calculate the industrial structure rationalization index, and uses the proportion of industrial added value to calculate the industrial structure upgrade index. By constructing the STIRPAT model, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of industrial structure rationalization and upgrade on carbon emissions. The results show that the rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration significantly inhibit carbon emissions. Compared with the rationalization of the industrial structure, the upgrading of industrial structure in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has a better effect on carbon emission reduction. For the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration, government expenditure on science and technology can promote the upgrading of industrial structure to a certain extent, thereby reducing carbon emissions. There is a big gap between the industrial structure development level of Hebei province and that of Beijing and Tianjin. Finally, based on the conclusion, this paper puts forward the policy enlightenment of promoting the optimization process of industrial structure and reducing carbon emissions of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration.

In China, there has been a significant increase in carbon emissions in the new era. Therefore, evaluating the influence of industrial structure upgrades and energy structure optimization on reducing carbon emissions is the objective of this research. Based on the provincial panel data of 30 provinces and cities across China from 1997 to 2019, this paper builds up a fixed-effect panel quantile STIRPAT model to investigate the differences in the impact of industrial structure on carbon emission intensity at different quantile levels from the provincial perspective, and as a way of causality test, the mediation effect model is adopted to empirically test the transmission path of “industrial structure upgrading—energy structure optimization—carbon emission reduction”. The research results show that: (1) Both industrial structure upgrades and energy structure optimization have significant inhibitory effects on carbon emissions, and there are regional heterogeneities. (2) The upgrading of industrial structure has a significant positive effect on optimizing energy structure. (3) The upgrading of industrial structure can not only directly restrain carbon emissions but also indirectly have a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions by promoting the optimization of energy structure. Based on the above conclusions, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed to provide suggestions for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an important role in promoting industrial structure and curbing carbon emission. The study is based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021 and verifies the impact of FDI under environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading and carbon emission. The empirical results show that FDI under environmental regulation can inhibit carbon emission and promote industrial structure upgrading. The carbon emission reduction effect and industrial structure upgrading effect of FDI show regional heterogeneity, with the strongest effect in the eastern region, followed by the central region, and no significant effect in the western region. The moderating effect examination of environmental regulation illustrates that formal and informal environmental regulation can effectively regulate the relationship between FDI and carbon emission, but due to differences in various factors such as economic development level and population quality, the moderating effect also exhibits regional heterogeneity. In the mechanism test, industrial structure upgrading plays a perfect mediating role in the path of FDI inhibiting carbon emission, and environmental regulation can further enhance the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading. There is a threshold of industrial structure upgrading between FDI and carbon emission, and FDI can only suppress carbon emission after crossing the threshold of industrial structure upgrading.

Compared with traditional technological innovation modes, green technology innovation is more targeted for low carbon development and critical support for countries worldwide to combat climate change. The impact of green technology innovation on carbon emissions is considered in terms of fixed effect and mediating effect models through industrial structure upgrading. For this purpose, the sample dataset of 30 provincial administrative areas in China from 2008 to 2020 is employed. The results demonstrate that green technology innovation exerts significantly inhibitory effects on carbon emissions, whose conclusion still holds after removing municipalities and replacing the dependent variable. Industrial structure upgrading is vital for green technology innovation to diminish carbon emissions. There is significant regional heterogeneity in the effects of green technology innovation on carbon emissions, i.e., the direct and indirect impact of green technology innovation on carbon emission reduction is significant in the eastern-central area, but its effect is insignificant in the western region. Therefore, it is essential to realize carbon emission reduction by further bolstering green technology innovation and accelerating industrial structure upgrading to fulfill the synergy of technology and structure.

This study re-evaluates the causal relationship among investment, economic growth, and industrial structure upgrading in China based on two decades of economic data. A dynamic spatial Durbin model is constructed to explore the temporal and spatial lag effects of fixed asset investment on industrial structure adjustment, with a focus on industrial structure rationalization and upgrading. Granger causality tests show that China's expanded economic scale significantly boosts investment scale, which in turn notably facilitates industrial structure rationalization. Spatial model results further reveal marked regional disparities in investment's impact on industrial structure upgrading: investment in the central and western regions is critical to local industrial structure rationalization, while the eastern region's industrial structure rationalization depends more on its prior-period level; investment in the eastern and central regions significantly advances local industrial structure upgrading, yet there is insufficient evidence confirming that western investment substantially drives this upgrading process.

The issue of climate and environment has been paid more and more attention by countries all over the world, especially regarding carbon emissions. Many national policies and scholars' research contents have focused on this issue, which has become a hot topic in today's society. As the world's largest carbon emitter, it is vital for China to achieve green development, upgrade its industrial structure and explore the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions. To explore the decoupling and interactive effects of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions, this paper divides industrial structure upgrading into two aspects: rationalization of industrial structure and upgrading of industrial structure. Indicators related to industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions are selected and the decoupling model of carbon emissions and industrial structure upgrading is constructed using panel data from 30 regions from 1997 to 2019. The core density function is used to analyze the decoupling distribution characteristics, and then the Gini coefficient decomposition method is used to analyze the carbon emissions decoupling index, revealing the regional differences and sources of carbon emissions decoupling index. Finally, spatial factors are included in the regression model to verify the spatial synergy effect of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions. The overall and local Moran indexes are used to reveal the spatial internal structure and agglomeration characteristics of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions, and, based on the research results, policy recommendations are put forward to promote sustainable and stable development of industrial structure upgrading in China. This provides a new perspective for understanding the relationship between industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions and also provides a decision-making reference for promoting decoupling of industrial structure upgrading and carbon emissions under high-quality economic development and forcing low-carbon transformation of the industrial structure.

After the "dual carbon" goal was put forward, low-carbon development has gradually become the focus of attention from all walks of life, and digital technology plays an important role in the process of helping carbon emission reduction. Digital trade, as an active field in international economy and trade, is of great significance to the economic growth of all countries and to deal with the problem of carbon emission reduction. This paper analyzes the transmission path of digital trade on urban carbon emission reduction in China from the theory of scale effect, structure effect and technological progress effect, and based on the panel data of 280 cities in China from 2011 to 2019, uses two-way fixed effect model to conduct regression analysis on the carbon emission reduction effect of digital trade. The study finds that China's digital trade development reduces urban carbon emission intensity, and the conclusion is still valid after the robustness test. Heterogeneity analyses show that the carbon emission reduction effect of digital trade varies in different regions in the East, West and Centre, as well as in regions with different degrees of carbon emissions. In terms of the transmission path, digital trade reduces regional carbon emission intensity by promoting scale effects, technological progress and industrial structure upgrading. Therefore, on the road of actively realizing the goal of "dual carbon", China should vigorously promote the development of international trade mode mainly represented by digital trade. At the same time, we fully recognize the heterogeneity of the impact of digital trade on carbon emissions, and adopt differentiated policies according to the different utility levels of digital trade on carbon emissions in different regions. This will narrow the "digital divide" between cities and help achieve China's "dual carbon" goal.

The Dynamic Impact of Digital Economy on Carbon Emission Reduction: Evidence City-level Empirical Data in China