Abstract

It is important to understand the dynamics of population size to accurately assess threats and implement conservation activities when required. However, inaccurate estimates are harming both the threat estimation process, and the resulting conservation actions. Here, we address the extinction threats to Scincella huanrenensis, a species described in the People’s Republic of China, but also occurring on the Korean peninsula. Estimating the threats to the species is not an easy task due to its unknown population status in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. Here we analysed the literature to acquire the known presence point for the species, along with datapoints originating from opportunistic field surveys, and employed habitat suitability models to estimate the range of the species. We then followed the categories and criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species to assess the extinction risk of the species. We found the species not to be fitting the threatened category at the global scale based on the range size, the only category for which enough data was available. We recommend the status of the species on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species to be updated as it is now listed as critically endangered (CR), a listing fitting a national assessment for the People’s Republic (PR) of China. While this species is possibly less threatened than currently listed, this is not a genuine improvement, and specific conservation aspects should not be neglected due to its specialisation to medium to high elevation habitat.

Highlights

  • Determining the threat to a species is of principal importance to establish corresponding conservation plans and prevent the species from going extinct [1]

  • The models generated from the actual species occurrences showed significantly better performance (AUC > 0.8; True Skill Statistic (TSS) > 0.6) than the null models generated from randomly sampled points

  • When we plotted and compared these two models, it was evident that the ensemble model failed to adjust sampling bias towards R Korea, while potential distribution of the species in DPR Korea was well represented by the Maxent model

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Summary

Introduction

Determining the threat to a species is of principal importance to establish corresponding conservation plans and prevent the species from going extinct [1]. Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species is the principal global agency taking care of updating such statuses, and the only organisation that has a general reach [2,3]. These lists are regularly updated when resources are available [4], and conservation resources are generally dependent on these lists, with good practices having resulted in positive conservation results [5]. Species, resulting in the of already listing limitedinresources List Threatened. 1982 was was described described based based on on an an adult adultmale male

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