How Prediction Accuracy Can Affect the Decision-Making Process in Pavement Management System

Seyed Amirhossein Hosseini,Omar Smadi

doi:10.3390/infrastructures6020028

Seyed Amirhossein Hosseini, Omar Smadi

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures6020028

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Journal: Infrastructures	Publication Date: Feb 11, 2021
Citations: 29	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Iowa State University

Abstract

One of the most important components of pavement management systems is predicting the deterioration of the network through performance models. The accuracy of the prediction model is important for prioritizing maintenance action. This paper describes how the accuracy of prediction models can have an effect on the decision-making process in terms of the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The process is simulating the propagation of the error between the actual and predicted values of pavement performance indicators. Different rate of error (10%, 30%, 50%, 70%, and 90%) was added into the result of prediction models. The results showed a strong correlation between the prediction models’ accuracy and the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation activities. The cost of treatment (in millions of dollars) over 20 years for five different scenarios increased from ($54.07–$92.95), ($53.89–$155.48), and ($74.41–$107.77) for asphalt, composite, and concrete pavement types, respectively. Increasing the rate of error also contributed to the prediction model, resulting in a higher benefit reduction rate.

Highlights

With an ageing transportation network, highway agencies are finding it challenging to maintain their deteriorating assets in good condition
The results of different scenarios were compared with the base scenario to check whether decreasing or increasing the accuracy of the prediction model can have an effect on the cost of maintenance and rehabilitation or not
The results of the pavement prediction model developed with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) were used in this study

Summary

Introduction

With an ageing transportation network, highway agencies are finding it challenging to maintain their deteriorating assets in good condition. Given the limited budget to maintain the network, departments of transportation (DOTs) need to efficiently manage their assets to satisfy network-level goals. In 2012, the US Congress passed the Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP-21), which requires each state DOT to present a riskbased asset management plan to maintain and improve their infrastructure condition [2]. MAP-21 requires evaluating the pavement condition of highways through its infrastructure conditions criteria. Another legislation, known as Fixing America’s Surface Transportation (FAST), passed in 2015 to support performance-based asset management methods

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