Global Warming and Its Effect on Binder Performance Grading in the USA: Highlighting Sustainability Challenges

Abstract

The mounting impacts of climate change on infrastructure demand proactive adaptation strategies to ensure long-term resilience. This study investigates the effects of predicted future global warming on asphalt binder performance grade (PG) selection in the United States using a time series method. Leveraging Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) data and Superpave protocol model, the research forecasts temperature changes for the period up to 2060 and calculates the corresponding PG values for different states. The results reveal significant temperature increases across the majority of states, necessitating adjustments in PG selection to accommodate changing climate conditions. The findings indicate significant increases in average 7-day maximum temperatures across the United States by 2060, with 38 out of 50 states likely to experience rising trends. Oregon, Utah, and Idaho are anticipated to face the largest temperature increases. Concurrently, the low air temperature has risen in 33 states, with notable increases in Maine, North Carolina, and Virginia. The widening gap predicted between required high and low PG poses challenges, as some necessary binders cannot be produced or substituted with other grades. The study highlights the challenge of meeting future PG requirements with available binders, emphasizing the need to consider energy consumption and CO2 emissions when using modifiers to achieve the desired PG properties.