How One Mistake Leads to Another: On the Importance of Verification/Replication

Abstract

It is impossible to overstate the importance of doing original research based on primary source material in scientific analysis (see, for example, King 1995). Failing to consult primary sources, and by definition relying on secondary sources, can lead to incorrect analyses and mistaken conclusions. An exemplary case is the apparent mystery of whether justices strategically retire and exactly when Congress passed legislation allowing federal judges to retire with benefits upon reaching age 65. One study cited 1937 as the year and based its analysis of judicial retirement on this “fact” (Abraham 1975). Subsequent studies cited the original piece without ever checking the original data—in this case a federal statute—and “replicated” the same mistaken analyses (see Atkinson 1999). In fact, the actual year this legislation was passed was 1954. This 17-year error not only makes a significant difference in the analysis of judicial retirement decisions, but also shows the importance of verification and replication in political research.