How much hydrogen should be supplied in the transportation market? Focusing on hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demand in South Korea: Hydrogen demand and fuel cell vehicles in South Korea

Abstract

Since the Paris Agreement, there has been a global, active transition from internal combustion engine to alternative-fuel vehicles. Accordingly, countries have established long-term low-carbon development strategies, and the transport sector has developed strategies to adopt hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCVs). South Korea has also established policies to revitalize the hydrogen ecosystem and increase the adoption of HFCVs. However, although the country has proposed a HFCV diffusion plan and a target, there has been no adequate hydrogen supply plan. Prior to the diffusion of HFCVs, it is necessary to establish a hydrogen supply plan and forecast hydrogen demand. Thus, this study forecast the demand for HFCVs using the Bass, logistic, and Gompertz models, and the analogy method. The demand for HFCVs in 2040 was then forecast for three scenarios by altering the diffusion rate, and the annual hydrogen demand and daily hydrogen demand per charging station were forecasted. The results show that the daily hydrogen demand per hydrogen station is expected to reach 1 to 2.3 tons by 2040. These findings can be used to establish policies to expand the capacity and infrastructure of hydrogen stations.