How many bird and mammal extinctions has recent conservation action prevented?

Friederike C Bolam ,Alexandre Reis Percequillo ,Tracey J Regan ,Birgit Feßl ,Tom Squires ,Federico Méndez-Sánchez ,Luis Miguel Renjifo ,Simon P Mahood ,Hannah Wheatley ,Michael Hoffmann ,Mark A Burgman ,Luc Lens ,Alexander Charles Lees ,Philip J.k Mcgowan ,James R.s Westrip ,Robert W Martin ,Louise Mair ,Jim J Groombridge ,Ana S L Rodrigues ,Thomas M Brooks ,Sarah R B King ,Paul Salaman ,Erik Meijaard ,Malin Rivers ,David Mallon ,John C Z Woinarski ,Yuliana Bedolla-Guzmán ,Stephen T Garnett ,Ella Vázquez‐Domínguez ,Diana O Fisher ,Peter Cranswick ,Richard P Young ,Matthew F Child ,John F Lamoreux ,Nicolette S Roach ,Christopher N Johnson ,Piero Visconti ,Claudia Hermes ,Carlo Rondinini ,Roger Safford ,Christopher R Dickman ,Javier Calzada ,Marco Angelico ,Rosalind J Kennerley ,Lizanne Roxburgh ,Stuart H M Butchart

doi:10.1111/conl.12762

Abstract

AbstractAichi Target 12 of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) contains the aim to ‘prevent extinctions of known threatened species’. To measure the degree to which this was achieved, we used expert elicitation to estimate the number of bird and mammal species whose extinctions were prevented by conservation action in 1993–2020 (the lifetime of the CBD) and 2010–2020 (the timing of Aichi Target 12). We found that conservation action prevented 21–32 bird and 7–16 mammal extinctions since 1993, and 9–18 bird and two to seven mammal extinctions since 2010. Many remain highly threatened and may still become extinct. Considering that 10 bird and five mammal species did go extinct (or are strongly suspected to) since 1993, extinction rates would have been 2.9–4.2 times greater without conservation action. While policy commitments have fostered significant conservation achievements, future biodiversity action needs to be scaled up to avert additional extinctions.

Highlights

The Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted an ambitious strategic plan for 2011–2020, comprising 20 ‘Aichi Biodiversity Targets’
Previous assessments of conservation impact investigated whether trends in extinction risk would have changed if no species had improved in conservation status (Hoffmann et al, 2010; Szabo, Butchart, Possingham, & Garnett, 2012), or if no conservation actions had taken place (e.g., Hoffmann et al, 2015; Young et al, 2014)
We focused on birds and mammals as some of the best documented taxonomic classes on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of threatened species

Summary

Introduction

The Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted an ambitious strategic plan for 2011–2020, comprising 20 ‘Aichi Biodiversity Targets’. Target 12 states that ‘By 2020, the extinction of known threatened species has been prevented and their conservation status, of those most in decline, has been improved and sustained’. Considering compelling evidence of a continued deterioration of the state of nature under increasing pressures (Díaz et al, 2019; IPBES, 2019), investigating the impact of conservation efforts is key to evaluating whether we have the knowledge and techniques to reverse negative trends, and to galvanise further action. Previous assessments of conservation impact investigated whether trends in extinction risk would have changed if no species had improved in conservation status (Hoffmann et al, 2010; Szabo, Butchart, Possingham, & Garnett, 2012), or if no conservation actions had taken place (e.g., Hoffmann et al, 2015; Young et al, 2014). Green listing will provide standardised methods to quantify species recovery (Akçakaya et al, 2018)

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