Abstract
Transformation of road transport sector through replacing of internal combustion vehicles with zero-emission technologies is among key challenges to achievement of climate neutrality by 2050. In a constantly developing economy, the demand for transport services increases to ensure continuity in the supply chain and passenger mobility. Deployment of electric technologies in the road transport sector involves both businesses and households, its pace depends on the technological development of zero-emission vehicles, presence of necessary infrastructure and regulations on emission standards for new vehicles entering the market. Thus, this study attempts to estimate how long combustion vehicles will be in use and what the state of the fleet will be in 2050. For obtainment of results the TR3E partial equilibrium model was used. The study simulates the future fleet structure in passenger and freight transport. The results obtained for Poland for the climate neutrality (NEU) scenario show that in 2050 the share of vehicles using fossil fuels will be ca. 30% in both road passenger and freight transport. The consequence of shifts in the structure of the fleet is the reduction of CO2 emissions ca. 80% by 2050 and increase of the transport demand for electricity and hydrogen.
Highlights
The aim of this study is explore the potential pathway to climate neutrality, taking into account the specific characteristics of the Polish passenger and freight transport sector
Our research examines the level of substitution ICEs by zero-emissions vehicles influenced by technological progress and consumer’s burden following CO2 emissions
The study does not descend to the supply chain level for manufacturers
Summary
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The European Union has agreed to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. It requires a more rapid transformation in the road passenger and freight vehicle fleet than implied in the previously agreed Regulation (EU) 2019/1242 [1] and (EU) 2019/631 [2]. The member countries are considering a proposal to amend Regulation (EU) 2019/631 [3]
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