Carbon Emissions Peak in the Road and Marine Transportation Sectors in View of Cost-Benefit Analysis: A Case of Guangdong Province in China

Xiaofang Lin,Yongming Zhao,Wenyuan Liao,Yonghong Liu,Li Li,Hui Ding

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2021.754192

Abstract

The road and marine transportation sectors have attracted a great deal of attention as one of the main sources of carbon emissions. In this study, a LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning system) model is used to predict the energy demand and carbon emissions of the road and marine transportation sectors in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2030. Based on the model results, if Guangdong Province does not adopt new control measures, in 2030, the energy demand and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions from the road and marine transportation sectors will have increased by 117 and 116%, respectively, compared to the levels in 2015. Conversely, under a low-carbon scenario, carbon emissions will peak by 2027 in Guangdong Province. Motor vehicle control measures generate the strongest reduction in energy consumption and CO2 emissions for the road and marine transportation sectors in Guangdong Province. Furthermore, the reduction of emissions resulting from these measures would increase over time. Public transportation development and the promotion of clean energy measures also play significant roles in reducing carbon emissions long-term. The contribution of road passenger transport to emission reduction is the largest, followed by marine freight transport and road freight transport. While the energy demand and carbon emissions peak at a similar time in the model, the peak time for CO2 occurs slightly earlier.

Highlights

Mitigating global climate change has involved cooperation at the national and international levels (Georgatzi et al, 2020; Raza and Lin, 2020)
This paper examines factors influencing transportation sector carbon emissions, considering the current situation of Guangdong Province and data availability, in order to summarize the factors affecting the development of low-carbon transportation
The results show that if Guangdong Province does not adopt new control measures, energy demand and CO2 emissions for the road and marine transportation sectors would increase to 117 and 116%, respectively by 2030 compared to 2015

Summary

Introduction

Mitigating global climate change has involved cooperation at the national and international levels (Georgatzi et al, 2020; Raza and Lin, 2020). Participating countries in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have signed the Kyoto Protocol, which aims to stabilize greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at an appropriate level. As the largest global emitter, signed the Kyoto Protocol in 1998. China signed the 2015 Paris Agreement and committed to peaking their carbon emissions by 2030 (Mendonca et al, 2020). To peak carbon emissions as rapidly as possible, many scholars are researching carbon emission peak scenarios, resulting in the topic being the latest research hotspot (Ding et al, 2019; Fang et al, 2019). In China, the transportation sector is the third largest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions after the power

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Conclusion