How is diversity related to species turnover through time?

Abstract

Empirical studies across a wide range of taxa show that the slopes of species–time relationships often decline as average species richness increases, indicating that more diverse communities have greater temporal stability in species composition. I explored potential explanations for this observation using two simple model formulations for species temporal dynamics. In the Abiotic model, species turnover is governed by the degree of heterogeneity in the environment and the range of species’ tolerances. In this case, more variable conditions lead to lower species richness and higher turnover, but only if the distribution of species’ niche widths and the size of the species pool are independent of the degree of environmental variability. The Biotic model represents direct effects of diversity on turnover through positive or negative feedbacks between diversity and species’ colonization and extinction rates. Declining turnover with increasing richness occurred when higher diversity either facilitated colonization by new species or reduced extinction rates of extant species. Both models could produce the observed pattern of declining turnover at higher diversity under some circumstances, however the conditions for this outcome in the Abiotic model were restrictive and potentially unrealistic. The models provide a process‐based framework for understanding the connection between diversity and species turnover through time.