How interstate soft conflicts affect bilateral migration: Results from a structural gravity model

Abstract

This study aims to empirically examine the impact of interstate soft conflicts on bilateral migration. Interstate soft conflicts that arise when diplomacy fails and a military operation seems too extreme may act as a policy tool and have a negative effect on bilateral relations. The empirical approach uses balanced panel data with annual observations and a theory-consistent structural gravity model of migration, augmented by a new measure of interstate soft conflict. The findings suggest that interstate soft conflicts have a lasting adverse effect on migration, regardless of the control for omitted variables (presence of regional trade agreements, various types of sanctions, the state acts, and militarised interstate disputes) and different model specifications. More specifically, these conflicts result in an average reduction of about 23.35% in bilateral migration. After accounting for the time delay in the effect and addressing reverse causality, the findings suggest that interstate soft conflicts may exert a prolonged (the effect disappears after three years) adverse impact on bilateral migration flows, causing a reduction of approximately 34.22%. Therefore, the study’s findings not only illuminate the complex relationship between soft conflicts and migration but also underscore their significant implications. These insights are valuable for policymakers and researchers, providing a solid foundation for informed decision-making and further exploring this complex issue.