How insecure is Pacific Asia?

Abstract

This article rejects extreme views on the Pacific Asian security situation that posit either smooth progress towards a prosperous and secure peace or accelerating tensions and arms races. It identifies four key conditions essential for the construction of durable regional security: pluralist political systems; growing interdependence; the creation of regional society; and a robust balance of power. None of these conditions is sufficient on its own: the tensions that can arise from economic interdependence and the dangers of the early stages of progress towards a pluralist polity are emphasized. Nevertheless, despite the limited effectiveness hitherto of formal pan-regional security organizations, there are positive signs of an emerging regional balance of power.