How Female Is the Future of Urology? Projecting Various Trajectories of the United States Urology Workforce

Abstract

To project the number and proportion of women in the urology workforce using recent demographic trends and develop an app to explore updated projections using future data. Demographic data were obtained from AUA Censuses and ACGME Data Resource Books. The proportion of female graduating urology residents was characterized with a logistic growth model. "Stock and Flow" models were used to project future population numbers and proportions of female practicing urologists, accounting for trainee demographics, retirement trends, and growth in the field. Assuming growth in urology graduate numbers and continued logistic growth in the proportion of women, 10,957 practicing urologists (38%) will be female by 2062. If the rate of women entering urology residency stagnates, 7038 urologists (24%) will be female. If the retirement rates for women in urology change to mirror those of men and the proportion of female residents continues to experience logistic growth, 11,178 urologists (38%) will be female. An interactive app was designed to allow for a range of assumptions and future data: https://stephenrho.shinyapps.io/uro-workforce/. Workforce projections should incorporate recent growth in numbers of female residents. If current growth continues, 38% of urologists will be female by 2062. The app allows for exploration of different scenarios and can be updated with new data. The projections demonstrate the need for targeted efforts to recruit women into urology, address disparities within the field, and work toward retaining female urologists. We must continue working toward an equitable future workforce that can address the impending shortage of urologists.