How does the Policy Leverage the "Resident Leverage Ratio"?

Abstract

Under the background that the international economy is in great recession and the new development pattern of domestic and international double circulation has gradually become a consensus macro-economy new normal, this paper investigates 31 provinces and cities' policies and residents' leverage ratio in recent ten years, and analyzes the direction and extent of industrial policy, fiscal policy and monetary policy on residents' leverage ratio by using stata, matlab and other software. The quantitative indicators of panel data are used to simulate dynamic and static models, respectively, to solve the problems of internal lag and endogenous variables, and to some extent reflect the impact of household leverage ratio on the domestic double-cycle situation. Finally, it is concluded that the completion of real estate development investment and the sales area of residential commercial housing are the main indicators that affect household leverage ratio. The added value of financial industry, land policy and per capita income of residents have a certain positive impact on the leverage ratio. Population age structure, interest rates and other factors have a weak impact on the leverage ratio. At the end of the article, the author puts forward some policy suggestions, such as correctly guiding the supply and demand relationship in the real estate market, improving the land fiscal policy, and reasonably regulating the monetary structure, which has certain reference significance for the research on the double-cycle development pattern at home and abroad.