How does China’s industrial structure change affect freight demand?

Abstract

Freight demand (FD) is closely related to industrial structure (IS), and the determination of this relationship is conducive to the development of the transport industry. This research proposed an input–output structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) model to explain the growth of FD with the changes in economic aggregate, structural factor, transport demand intensity, and industry connection. This method enables us to quantify and compare the contribution of industrial development to FD growth of five freight modes and determine the role of the structural factor in the growth of FD. An empirical study was conducted based on China’s 2002 to 2017 input–output tables. The results showed that the construction industry was the most important sector leading to the growth of FD, and the role of the service industry in promoting the growth of FD became more evident. There was a clear trend of concentration to the road freight industry, which may undermine the coordination of the transport industry. The structural factor became an important factor in reducing FD in 2007 to 2017. Based on the findings, it is suggested that China should promote the upgrading of IS and emphasize the importance of green road transport and multimodal transport.