How Did Covid 19 Affect Strategic Goods? A Study Using the Scenario Method

Abstract

Based on a review of literature dealing with the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on international transactions, it should be noted that this pandemic in the world has led to a radical change in several areas. In this article, we have chosen to focus on the sectors that are strongly affected by this pandemic, namely the oil sector and not forgetting to study fluctuations related to the metals sector (gold). Indeed, the oil sector is a market that is well affected by this pandemic, which has caused significant price fluctuations. That is why this study is trying to identify the impact of this pandemic on this sector. Similarly, due to the lack of stability in the prices of metals (particularly gold), this leads us to analyze and process these fluctuations in order to determine the effect caused by the pandemic. Finally, to clarify our research questions, a study based on the scenario model is retained to identify the impact of Covid-19 on each of these variables, at the beginning and to verify the effect between all these variables, thereafter. The obtained results demonstrate that the pandemic affects negatively Oil prices. On the contrary, the high number of infected people leads to the rise in gold price during the forecast period.