How climate change could affect different cities in Canada and what that means for the risks to the built-environment functions

Abstract

This research aims to advance risk perceptions of climate change and understanding of the potential needs of municipal-scale climate adaptation across seventeen Canadian cities. To do so, the rate and direction of changes in a wide variety of climate variables are examined in all the capital cities and some other major cities like Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary, by analyzing downscaled data from twenty-six General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to the year 2100, using the modified Mann-Kendall test and Euclidean distance. The findings of this study suggest that under SSP5–8.5 scenario, Canadian cities will experience more extreme heat and heavy rainfall but less extreme cold in the future, especially when compared to SSP2–4.5, where for example, the number of models showing an increasing trend for annual precipitation is about 60% higher under SSP5–8.5 than under SSP2–4.5 over the 17 cities. In addition, using Epps-Singleton test, climate change in neighboring cities is compared to see how similar adaptation plans are possible. The results show that coastal cities, even those located relatively close to one another, such as Vancouver and Victoria, follow different trends for most of the variables (22 out of 28). Furthermore, a qualitative assessment of which built environment aspects of these cities may require more rapid modification than others is provided to assist decision-makers and planners in resilience planning and resource allocation.