How Attitudinal Group Perceptions of the Social Contract Affect the Far Right Vote in Europe

Abstract

Existing explanations of the rise of the far right populism in Europe focus on the culture versus economy dichotomy, with scholars increasingly agreeing that culture is the strongest predictor of far right populist party support. This paper contests this view, putting forward a model that takes governance into account. Using data from 8 waves of the European Social Survey (2002-2016), we show that the rise of the far right in Europe is better understood within a framework of the social contract, i.e. a broader framework of collective cooperation in which state capacity, institutional trust, compensation and national solidarity are all dimensions of good governance. We show that good governance makes it unlikely for far right parties to expand their support beyond their secure voting base.