How accurate was GMENAC?--A retrospective review of supply projections for diagnostic radiologists.

Abstract

In 1982, the Graduate Medical Education National Advisory Committee (GMENAC), a prominent national panel, predicted there would be 25,650 full-time equivalent (FTE) diagnostic radiologists, a 34% oversupply, by 1990. The radiologists involved in GMENAC, however, using models developed by the American College of Radiology, projected 19,800 FTE diagnostic radiologists in 1990, which was similar to the GMENAC estimate of need. The disagreement arose principally from different assumptions about residents entering the specialty. Recent data show there actually were approximately 21,900 FTE diagnostic radiologists in 1990. The radiologists' projection was 10% below this figure; the GMENAC projection was 17% above it. GMENAC erred principally in assuming diagnostic radiology residencies would not replace general radiology residencies, but rather be an addition to them. The radiologists erred principally in their assumption about the effects of the financial problems of hospitals on the number of residency positions. Accurate long-term projection of physician supply in individual specialties may well not be feasible.