Hopf bifurcation in a conceptual climate model with ice–albedo and precipitation–temperature feedbacks

Abstract

In this paper we analyse a dynamical system based on the so-called KCG (Källén, Crafoord, Ghil) conceptual climate model. This model describes an evolution of the globally averaged temperature and the average extent of the ice sheets. In the nondimensional form the equations can be simplified facilitating the subsequent analysis. We consider the limiting case of a stationary snow line for which the phase plane can be completely analysed and the type of each critical point can be determined. One of them can exhibit the Hopf bifurcation and we find sufficient conditions for its existence. Those, in turn, have a straightforward physical meaning and indicate that the model predicts internal oscillations of the climate. Using the typical real-world values of appearing parameters we conclude that the obtained results are in the same ballpark as the conditions on our planet during the quaternary ice ages. Our analysis is a rigorous justification of a generalization of some previous results by KCG and other authors.