Hoosiers, Holcomb, and the Landslide: The 2016 Indiana Gubernatorial Results

Abstract

This research paper assignment on the 2016 Indiana gubernatorial election was done in two parts. The first part (not included) was on predicting the winner of this election. My prediction for the Democratic candidate, John Gregg, was incorrect. This essay is the follow-up analysis (written within two weeks after the election results) of what transpired during the election in relation to my prediction. I argue that the Eric Holcomb win and Gregg loss was due to the larger national Republican victory, a lack of Democratic campaigning power in Indiana, Gregg’s (over)emphasis of LGBT rights, his dismay for the RFRA, and Holcomb’s optimistic economic plans. Gregg’s connection to Mike Pence is also discussed as a defining factor of his win. Demographics of the Indiana exit polls are also considered. While the race was polled, and reported as a toss-up in the weeks before the election, in hindsight, a Republican Governor winning in a largely Republican state is a logical conclusion.