Abstract
This study aims to investigate the precipitation trends in Keszthely (Western Hungary, Central Europe) through an examination of historical climate data covering the past almost one and a half centuries. Pettitt’s test for homogeneity was employed to detect change points in the time series of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation records. Change points and monotonic trends were analysed separately in annual, seasonal and monthly time series of precipitation. While no break points could be detected in the annual precipitation series, a significant decreasing trend of 0.2–0.7 mm/year was highlighted statistically using the autocorrelated Mann-Kendall trend test. Significant change points were found in those time series in which significant tendencies had been detected in previous studies. These points fell in spring and winter for the seasonal series, and October for the monthly series. The question therefore arises of whether these trends are the result of a shift in the mean. The downward and upward shift in the mean in the case of spring and winter seasonal amounts, respectively, leads to a suspicion that changes in precipitation are also in progress in these seasons. The study concludes that homogeneity tests are of great importance in such analyses, because they may help to avoid false trend detections.
Highlights
There is no doubt that global warming and climate change represent a potential hazard to human socio-economic systems and our present way of life
After extensive research in the meta-data and archive information concerning the history of the measurements, no apparent explanation could be found for this change point
In the case of the amount of spring precipitation, the declining tendency previously observed is likely to be the consequence of an abrupt change in the average, as a significant break point was found in the time series
Summary
There is no doubt that global warming and climate change represent a potential hazard to human socio-economic systems and our present way of life. The IPCC AR 5 (2013) gives a detailed description on the basis of scientific findings of the physical driving forces of climate change and the potential consequences that it is likely humanity will have to face in the future. The member states of the European Union are leaders in the mitigation of the effects of climate change, and lead the way in the development of a model for the advance of national climate adaptation and mitigation strategies (Pietrapertosa et al 2018). Changes in precipitation have serious effects on human society and are the focus of investigation in many scientific fields, e.g. hydrology, agriculture and environmental sciences (Zhao et al 2018). Rain gauges measure precipitation amounts accurately close to the ground (Schroeer et al 2018)
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