Abstract
The year following the expiration of the U.S. Assault Weapons Ban (AWB), the homicide rate in Mexico increased for the first time in a decade. A difference-in-discontinuities model and a unique dataset are used to compare discontinuities generated by close mayoral elections on either side of the AWB expiration. The model finds a statistically significant increase in the firearm homicide rate following the expiration. The effect is larger closer to the U.S.-Mexico border, and is isolated to the timing of the AWB expiration. Furthermore, there is no evidence of a concurrent increase in non-firearm homicides or other violent crimes.
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