Abstract
Large cities can contain populations that move rapidly from one section to another in an efficient transportation network. An emerging air-borne or contact based pathogen could use these transportation routes to rapidly spread an infection throughout an entire population in a short time. Further, in many developed countries, the aging population is increasing. The family structure in these societies may also affect the course of a disease. To help understand the impact of an epidemic on family structure in a networked population, an individual based computer model that randomly generates networked cities with a specified range of population and disease characteristics and individual schedules, infectivity, transmission and hygiene factors was developed. Several salient issues emerged. First, a city of highly active individuals may in fact diminish the number of fatalities because the average duration of the interactions between agents is reduced. Second, home schooling can significantly improve survival because the institutional clustering of weak individuals is minimized. Third, the worst scenario for an aging population is the nuclear family where the aged population is confined to large housing facilities. Naturally, hygiene is the first barrier to infection. The results suggest that societies where extended families and small groups manage most of their own affairs may also be the most suitable for defense against a pandemic. This may prove applicable in city planning and policy making.
Highlights
Modern cities often have high speed transportation networks that permit individuals from distant sectors to come into contact in fairly short time intervals [1,2], somewhat resembling a free scale network [3]
When the size of these E/R facilities was reduced such that the number of E/R individuals was the same as those who lived in the extended families, the fatalities became similar to the extended families and when the maximum size of these E/R facilities was increased from 20 (Fig. 5a) to 100, the consequences were even more devastating
When the children were limited to home environments, the death toll for the entire population was substantially reduced for both societies
Summary
Modern cities often have high speed transportation networks that permit individuals from distant sectors to come into contact in fairly short time intervals [1,2], somewhat resembling a free scale network [3]. The particular infection profile [11,13] of a given disease can vary with location, societal structure, habits, customs, etc. Whereas these are difficult to know beforehand, diseases preferentially attack the weakest members of a population, typically the young and the old [14,15]. Individual based models of disease transmission and infection offer the clearest similarity to a true human society [2]. Individual based models can explicitly develop these networks with more characteristic features of real human populations
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