Abstract
This study analyzed climate change scenarios and their potential impact on water availability for the South-Southeast region (SSR) of Mexico. Precipitation patterns were examined using the Standardized Precipitation Index for three emissions scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, during the periods of 1960-2016, 2015-2039 (near future), and 2075-2099 (far future). Historical changes in precipitation in the SSR indicated the presence of dry and wet events driven by El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which are the regional climate modulators. However, the impact of these phases has not been quantified for the future. The results of our climate change projections show that the Grijalva and Usumacinta rivers and surrounding regions (Chiapas and Tabasco) will have an increase in the percentage of dry and wet events in the near future (2015-2039), while there is a medium to low probability of this occurrence in rest of the SSR. By 2075-2099, Grijalva and Usumacinta will continue to have a high probability of dry events due to climate change, and the Yucatan will also exhibit this behavior. RCP 4.5 was projected to be the wettest scenario for the study area, while RCP 8.5 projected an increase in dry events in the area during both periods (2015-2039 and 2075-2099). RCP 6.0 projected a drier 2015-2039 and wetter 2075-2099.
Highlights
Climate change is considered the most significant threat of the 21st century, with implications for natural, environmental, social, and economic spheres (UN Environment, 2019; Mora et al, 2018)
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)-12 provides information on wet and dry events that have occurred in a region
This study presented the expected changes in precipitation in the Southeast region (SSR) of Mexico under three climate change scenarios
Summary
Climate change is considered the most significant threat of the 21st century, with implications for natural, environmental, social, and economic spheres (UN Environment, 2019; Mora et al, 2018). The adverse effects of climate change and variability can affect human health, ecosystems, water availability, infrastructure, agriculture, and other socio-economic sectors (IPCC, 2018; Mora et al, 2018). Mateos et al (2016) reported that climate change would not affect everyone in the same way since developing countries and the most vulnerable social groups will be the most affected. Water resource management is predicted to become one of the most significant challenges of climate change worldwide (Magaña et al, 2018), and the availability of water resources is a primary social concern, for underdeveloped countries that already have limited access to clean water (Martínez-Austria & Patiño-Gómez, 2012)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
