Historical and Projected Climate Trends Along the Appalachian Trail, USA, and the Implications for Trail Usage

Abstract

Recent climate analyses indicate that average global temperature is rising and both global drought occurrence and precipitation intensity are increasing. The nature of climate change is unique to each location, and its impact, both positive and negative, is predicted to be widespread. One area to be potentially affected includes management and use of outdoor natural resources such as the Appalachian Trail (AT), a 3500 km continuous hiking trail in the eastern United States. Observed historical (1895-2008) and projected future (to 2099) seasonal temperature and precipitation trends were examined along the AT. The AT has generally warmed since 1895, with greater warming occurring more recently. The warming has been greatest in the northern part of the AT and during winter. Precipitation trends show wide spatial variation depending upon the season, but generally precipitation has increased more in the northern than southern AT. Temperature and precipitation are projected to increase for all regions during all seasons in the future. Implications of these changes are discussed with respect to hiker experience and trail management.