Abstract
Large-area, long-duration droughts are among Canada’s costliest natural disasters. A particularly vulnerable region includes the Canadian Prairies where droughts have, and are projected to continue to have, major impacts. However, individual droughts often differ in their stages such as onset, growth, persistence, retreat, and duration. Using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, this study assesses historical and projected future changes to the stages and other characteristics of severe drought occurrence across the agricultural region of the Canadian Prairies. Ten severe droughts occurred during the 1900–2014 period with each having unique temporal and spatial characteristics. Projected changes from 29 global climate models (GCMs) with three representative concentration pathways reveal an increase in severe drought occurrence, particularly toward the end of this century with a high emissions scenario. For the most part, the overall duration and intensity of future severe drought conditions is projected to increase mainly due to longer persistence stages, while growth and retreat stages are generally shorter. Considerable variability exists among individual GCM projections, including their ability to simulate observed severe drought characteristics. This study has increased understanding in potential future changes to a little studied aspect of droughts, namely, their stages and associated characteristics. This knowledge can aid in developing future adaptation strategies.
Highlights
Droughts are among the world’s most significant hazards, often affecting more people and are frequently more costly than any other form of natural disaster [1]
The formulation of SPEI is similar to Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), but is based on the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), rather than precipitation alone [16]
Using Canadian Gridded Dataset (CANGRD), ten severe droughts were identified during the historical period (1900 to 2014)
Summary
Droughts are among the world’s most significant hazards, often affecting more people and are frequently more costly than any other form of natural disaster [1]. While many natural disasters have direct and immediate impacts, those from drought can be indirect and spread over long durations and large areas, making any preparations or efficient response difficult. The environmental impacts from major drought episodes are varied but often include reduced water quality, wetland loss, soil erosion and degradation, and ecological habitat destruction. Economic effects include decreased agricultural production and hydro-electric power generation and increased freshwater transportation costs, e.g., [2,3,4]. Improved understanding of the features of drought is critical for the management of such impacts.
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