HISTORICAL 2002 FLOOD IN CENTRAL EUROPE AND FLOOD DEFENCE: Situation in the Czech Republic, illustrated with the Elbe River Basin Experience

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The floods that the Czech Republic has experienced in recent years were mostly of the 50 to 100 year occurrence rate. Especially between 1997 and 2002, the Czech Republic suffered five major floods and two of them, the floods of 1997 and 2002, were of catastrophic magnitude and brought devastating effects to large land area. Analyses of meteorological situations prevailing during the floods are now a common fact that has been discussed by the professional community many times. Speaking on these terms, let me please point out Mr. Milankovitch’s hypothesis in which he attributes the radical changes in the global climate to the planetary system (Harvey 1992), namely to periodic changes in tilt of the Earth's axis and in orbit excentricity. If, while taking into account this hypothesis, we project the anticipated development of the graph depicting the statistical evaluation of the runoff in the major European watercourses (Figure 1) (Russ 1992) into present time, the pluvial period should extend from the 1990s to about 2030. It seems, however, that the increasing amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere might correct this assumption in the sense of word that we can expect shifts in the European continent climate character. We will experience noticeable regional precipitation fluctuations that, in extreme situations, will induce floods and prolong the periods of draught. After all, the character of 2003 weather already confirms this thesis. In the event of such climatic change