Abstract
Abstract. In this paper a model for the estimation of the number of potential fatalities is proposed based on data from 19 past floods in central Europe. First, the factors contributing to human losses during river floods are listed and assigned to the main risk factors: hazard – exposure – vulnerability. The order of significance of individual factors has been compiled by pairwise comparison based on experience with real flood events. A comparison with factors used in existing models for the estimation of fatalities during floods shows good agreement with the significant factors identified in this study. The most significant factors affecting the number of human losses in floods have been aggregated into three groups and subjected to correlation analysis. A close-fitting regression dependence is proposed for the estimation of loss of life and calibrated using data from selected real floods in central Europe. The application of the proposed model for the estimation of fatalities due to river floods is shown via a flood risk assessment for the locality of Krnov in the Czech Republic.
Highlights
The consequences of extreme flood events in central Europe that have occurred during the last decades show the necessity for a systematic approach to flood protection
One of the important risks which should be taken into account is loss of human lives. To include this risk component in analyses, it is necessary to estimate the potential loss of life (LOL) due to floods corresponding to a given return period
The objective of this paper is to propose a user-friendly model for estimating loss of life in conditions typical in the Czech Republic and surrounding central European countries
Summary
The consequences of extreme flood events in central Europe that have occurred during the last decades show the necessity for a systematic approach to flood protection. One of the important risks which should be taken into account is loss of human lives To include this risk component in analyses, it is necessary to estimate the potential loss of life (LOL) due to floods corresponding to a given return period. The most significant factors contributing to the fatalities during past floods were aggregated to three groups and were included in the model for estimating the loss of life due to river floods. The objectives of the paper are to summarize factors contributing to the loss of life due to river floods and to propose a model for the estimation of the potential number of fatalities. Riha: A model for estimating the number of flood fatalities in Europe proposed based on empirical data from real floods.
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