Hindcasting the January 2009 Arctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Its Influence on the Arctic Oscillation with Unified Parameterization of Orographic Drag in NOGAPS. Part I: Extended-Range Stand-Alone Forecast

Abstract

Abstract A very strong Arctic major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event occurred in late January 2009. The stratospheric temperature climbed abruptly and the zonal winds reversed direction, completely splitting the polar stratospheric vortex. A hindcast of this event is attempted by using the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), which includes the full stratosphere with its top at around 65 km. As Part I of this study, extended-range (3 week) forecast experiments are performed using NOGAPS without the aid of data assimilation. A unified parameterization of orographic drag is designed by combining two parameterization schemes; one by Webster et al., and the other by Kim and Arakawa and Kim and Doyle. With the new unified orographic drag scheme implemented, NOGAPS is able to reproduce the salient features of this Arctic SSW event owing to enhanced planetary wave activity induced by more comprehensive subgrid-scale orographic drag processes. The impact of the SSW on the tropospheric circulation is also investigated in view of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index, which calculated using 1000-hPa geopotential height. The NOGAPS with upgraded orographic drag physics better simulates the trend of the AO index as verified by the Met Office analysis, demonstrating its improved stratosphere–troposphere coupling. It is argued that the new model is more suitable for forecasting SSW events in the future and can serve as a tool for studying various stratospheric phenomena.