Hindcasting of Equatorial Spread F Using Seasonal Empirical Models

Abstract

AbstractThe role of gravity waves in modulating equatorial spread F (ESF) day‐to‐day variability is investigated using ionosonde data at Trivandrum (geographic coordinates, 8.5°N, 77°E; mean geomagnetic latitude −0.3°N) a magnetic equatorial location. A novel empirical model that incorporates the combined effects of electrodynamics and gravity waves in modulating ESF occurrence during autumnal equinox season was presented by Aswathy and Manju (2017). In the present study, the height variations of the requisite gravity wave seed perturbations for ESF are examined for the vernal equinoxes, summer solstices, and winter solstices of different years. Subsequently, the empirical model, incorporating the electrodynamical effects and the gravity wave modulation, valid for each of the seasons is developed. Accordingly, for each season, the threshold curve may be demarcated provided the solar flux index (F10.7) is known. The empirical models are validated using the data for high, moderate, and low solar activity years corresponding to each season. In the next stage, this model is to be fine tuned to facilitate the prediction of ESF well before its onset.