Higher Snowfall Intensity is Associated with Reduced Impacts of Warming Upon Winter Snow Ablation

Abstract

AbstractWarming temperatures are altering winter snowpack accumulation and ablation. Physically based snowpack simulations have indicated that increasing precipitation intensity may buffer the impacts of warming on annual maximum snow water equivalents. Here, we assess this relationship using an observational dataset from the western United States and show that greater snowfall intensity is associated with reduced accumulation season ablation, particularly in warmer conditions. We also use outputs from a hydrological model to evaluate the effect of snowfall intensity on ablation in future climate scenarios. Snowfall intensity is projected to increase in the continental interior, which could reduce the average effects of warming on accumulation season ablation by as much as 6.3%, and decrease in maritime climates, increasing the effects of warming on ablation by up to 6.0%. These results indicate the importance of accurately modeling changing snowfall intensity and considering snowfall intensity in climate change impact assessments of snow‐dependent ecosystems and water resources.