High spatial resolution decade-time scale land cover change at multiple locations in the Beringian Arctic (1948–2000s)

Abstract

Analysis of time series imagery from satellite and aircraft platforms is useful for detecting land cover change at plot to regional scales. In this study, we created multi-temporal high spatial resolution land cover maps for seven locations in the Beringian Arctic and assessed the change in land cover over time. Land cover classifications were site specific and mostly aligned with a soil moisture gradient. Time series varied between 60 and 21 years. Four of the five landscapes studied in Alaska underwent an expansion of drier land cover classes while the two landscapes studies in Chukotka, Russia showed an expansion of wetter land cover types. While a range of land cover types was present across the landscapes studied, the extent of shrubs (in Chukotka) and open water (in Alaska) increased in all landscapes where these land cover types were present. The results support trends documented for regional change in NDVI (a measure of vegetation greenness and productivity) as well as a host of other long term, experimental and modeling studies. Using historic change trends for each land cover type at each landscape, we use a simple probabilistic vegetation model to establish hypotheses of future change trajectories for different land cover types at each of the landscapes investigated. This study is a contribution to the International Polar Year Back to the Future project (IPY-BTF).