High Probability Cycles of the Sugar Subcomplex Activities in the Agro-Industrial Complex

Abstract

The article aims at defining the sets of high probability cycles and at revealing the common cyclic genome for sugar industry which, taken as a whole, affect the production of sugar, sugar beet, and sugarcane. The author also studies the principles of big regional structures in the sugar subcomplex. For the first time, the concept of revealing a cyclic genome by means of the forward analysis (instead of the spectral analysis) is realised in practice, i. e. periodograms are built on the basis of a forward analysis and not of a spectral analysis. It has been confirmed in practice that the forward analysis shows substantially better results in building periodograms than the traditional spectral analysis. The author has revealed new principles in shift (mutation) of the cyclic genome of the world sugar production and has defined the sociogenetic principles (cycles of various nature), such as following: the cycle of the developed countries group is 8.23 years, the cycles of the developing countries is 8.39, the cycle of the Third World countries in 7.6. The article has also revealed a cyclic “drift” in the world sugar production. So, after World War II it has shifted from 9.49 years (typical for the period from the 19th century until the middle of the 20th century) to the current value of 7.12 years.