High and Low Air Temperatures and Natural Wildfire Ignitions in the Sierra Nevada Region

Abstract

The Sierra Nevada region has experienced substantial wildfire impacts. Uncertainty pertaining to fire risk may be reduced by better understanding how air temperature (Ta: °C) influences wildfire ignitions independently of other factors. We linked lightning-ignited wildfires to Ta patterns across the region from 1992 to 2015 and compared monthly high- and low-air-temperature patterns between ignition and non-ignition locations at local scales (4 km). Regionally, more ignitions occurred in springs with a greater number of high-Ta months and fewer cool Ta months (analyzed separately) and in summers with fewer cool Ta months. Locally, summer ignition locations experienced warmer summer months on a normalized scale than non-ignition locations. The probability of a wildfire ignition was positively associated with a greater number of high-Ta months during and prior to fire seasons. Regionally, springs with a greater number of high-Ta months had more wildfire ignitions. Locally, as individual locations in the region experienced a greater number of high-Ta months preceding and including the fire season, they exhibited substantial increases in spring (+1446%), summer (+365%), and fall (+248%) ignitions. Thus, the frequent occurrence of high-Ta months is positively associated with lightning-ignited wildfires in the Sierra Nevada region.