Heterogeneous changes in global glacial lakes under coupled climate warming and glacier thinning

Abstract

Global glacial lakes have expanded markedly in recent decades, accompanied by many catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods. However, our understanding of glacial lake evolution and connections with global warming and glacier thinning remains insufficient due to fragmented studies and a lack of standardized mapping. Here we evaluated the glacial lake changes and their drivers, taking care to accurately map glacial lakes while excluding non-glacier fed lakes in the same geographic area. In 2020, a total of 71,508 glacial lakes were identified worldwide, covering an area of 21,770.9±\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\pm$$\\end{document}544.2 km2. The total volume of 1280.6±\\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \\usepackage{amsmath} \\usepackage{wasysym} \\usepackage{amsfonts} \\usepackage{amssymb} \\usepackage{amsbsy} \\usepackage{mathrsfs} \\usepackage{upgreek} \\setlength{\\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \\begin{document}$$\\pm$$\\end{document}354.1 km3 is equivalent to a sea-level rise of 3.45 mm. Since the 1990s, glacial lake numbers, areas, and volumes increased by 54%, 11%, and 9%, respectively. The spatial evolution patterns align well with resolved large-scale, decadal glacier mass changes. Glacier-fed lakes extensively expanded due to glacier retreat and melting, while ice-dammed lakes were primarily affected by thinning ice dams, resulting in heterogeneous changes and underestimated outburst potential. Under the sustained glacier degradation scenario, the results of this study have implications for further evaluation of glacial lake water resources and outburst risks on a global scale.