Heterogeneity in flood risk awareness: A longitudinal, latent class model approach

Abstract

Insights into the heterogeneity of human behaviours and attitudes toward risk require the understanding of the role played by a plurality of factors, such as risk awareness and trust. However, our knowledge of the interplay of these factors is limited, as is our knowledge of the patterns in risk attitudes and behaviours and their evolution over time. This study explores the interplay between attitudes and behaviours related to flood risk awareness and structural flood protection in two communities in the Eastern Italian Alps, and how they changed over time. To this end, a questionnaire was submitted to a total of 420 residents, in the year 2005 (N = 200) and 2018 (N = 220), and then analysed using Latent Class Analysis. No floods were recorded in the area during this period. The results show that there is a group of residents characterized by low risk awareness and high trust in structural flood protection. Such individuals are likely to live in urban – rather than mountain – communities and are characterized by a lack of or limited experience with floods. They are also prone to believe that such events will not happen in the future. In 2005, this group represented less than half of the sample, but its size substantially increased in 2018. This result has strong implications for local risk managers, because this group of residents is less risk aware than the others and they may deserve special attention and targeted messages in flood risk communication campaigns. This and other results are discussed, including the potential development of generalizable models to provide emergency and risk managers with tools to unveil risk awareness patterns and to tailor risk communication actions to citizens attitudes and behaviours. The paper ends with some considerations about the need not only to better understand but also to address diversity in flood risk awareness.