HETEROFOR 1.0: a spatially explicit model for exploring the response of structurally complex forests to uncertain future conditions – Part 2: Phenology and water cycle

Abstract

Abstract. Climate change affects forest growth in numerous and sometimes opposite ways, and the resulting trend is often difficult to predict for a given site. Integrating and structuring the knowledge gained from the monitoring and experimental studies into process-based models is an interesting approach to predict the response of forest ecosystems to climate change. While the first generation of models operates at stand level, one now needs spatially explicit individual-based approaches in order to account for individual variability, local environment modification and tree adaptive behaviour in mixed and uneven-aged forests that are supposed to be more resilient under stressful conditions. The local environment of a tree is strongly influenced by the neighbouring trees, which modify the resource level through positive and negative interactions with the target tree. Among other things, drought stress and vegetation period length vary with tree size and crown position within the canopy. In this paper, we describe the phenology and water balance modules integrated in the tree growth model HETEROFOR (HETEROgenous FORest) and evaluate them on six heterogeneous sessile oak and European beech stands with different levels of mixing and development stages and installed on various soil types. More precisely, we assess the ability of the model to reproduce key phenological processes (budburst, leaf development, yellowing and fall) as well as water fluxes. Two two-phase models differing regarding their response function to temperature during the chilling period (optimum and sigmoid functions) and a simplified one-phase model are used to predict budburst date. The two-phase model with the optimum function is the least biased (overestimation of 2.46 d), while the one-phase model best accounts for the interannual variability (Pearson's r=0.68). For the leaf development, yellowing and fall, predictions and observations are in accordance. Regarding the water balance module, the predicted throughfall is also in close agreement with the measurements (Pearson's r=0.856; bias =-1.3 %), and the soil water dynamics across the year are well reproduced for all the study sites (Pearson's r was between 0.893 and 0.950, and bias was between −1.81 and −9.33 %). The model also reproduced well the individual transpiration for sessile oak and European beech, with similar performances at the tree and stand scale (Pearson's r of 0.84–0.85 for sessile oak and 0.88–0.89 for European beech). The good results of the model assessment will allow us to use it reliably in projection studies to evaluate the impact of climate change on tree growth in structurally complex stands and test various management strategies to improve forest resilience.