Future of the Main Important Forest Tree Species in Serbia from the Climate Change Perspective

Branislav Trudić,Aleksandra Kržič,Saša Orlović,Bratislav Matović,Zoran Galić,Dehan Stojanović,Srđan Stojnić,Saša Pekeč

doi:10.15177/seefor.14-16

Abstract

Materials and Methods: Our study integrates climate change scenarios for the region of Serbia together with the current distribution of forest tree species. Evaluation was performed using forest aridity index which takes into account mean temperatures and sums of precipitation of the critical months during the growing season. Distribution data of the nine most abundant tree species in Serbia (European beech, Turkey oak, Sessile oak, Hungarian oak, Pedunculate oak, Norway spruce, Silver fir, Black and Scots pine) were taken from the National Forest Inventory. Results: Significant change of bioclimatic niches is expected for the majority of the studied tree species. The most endangered will be Pedunculate oak due to the extreme change of its habitats, while drought prone species (like pines and Hungarian oak) will be less endangered. Sessile oak, Turkey oak, Silver fir, Norway spruce and European beech will be out of their 20 th century bioclimatic niches before the end of 21 st century according to A2 scenario. Conclusion: Our results suggest that some of the most important tree species in Serbia (Sessile oak, Turkey oak, Silver fir, Norway spruce and European beech) will be endangered by the end of 21 st century. General adaption options and specific measurements for forestry sector have to be made for the region of southeast Europe due to the expected extreme change in climate.

Highlights

Change of climate conditions which are observed in past thirty years as well as climate change predictions for future, present a great challenge for forestry [1].Globally, world’s forests influence climate through different ways and their mu-tual interaction is complex [2], interaction between forests and climate on the regional and local level is complex, climate as a global phenomenon has a stronger impact on regional forests vice versa
Führer et al [14] proposed a new forest aridity index (FAI) originally designed for yield assessment that is based on the relationships between precipitations and mean monthly temperatures and proved that growth of various species is closely correlated with that index according to a formula: TVII+TVIII
Calculations of FAI showed that change in bioclimatic conditions in Serbia may be considerably large (Figure 1), which could, in a long run, have an impact on the current forestry and agriculture practices

Summary

Introduction

Change of climate conditions which are observed in past thirty years as well as climate change predictions for future, present a great challenge for forestry [1].Globally, world’s forests influence climate through different ways and their mu-tual interaction is complex [2], interaction between forests and climate on the regional and local level is complex, climate as a global phenomenon has a stronger impact on regional forests vice versa. Climate change projections from the year 2000 predict a change of temperature in the range from 2 up to about 6 degrees according to different CO2 scenarios by the end of 21st century [11, 12]. By the year 2009 most of the CO2 emission scenarios from the 2000 were exceeded [13], which pointed to quite an uncertain future for the upcoming generations, as well as for forestry. According to this perspective current forest management has to be re-considered in the following years with the aim of adapting to changed climate conditions. Main purpose of this study was to predict how distribution of several tree species in Serbia may change in the future

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion