Herders’ perception of climate change does not always fit with actual climate change

Abstract

Herders’ perceptions are important in relation to adopting adaptive behavioural approaches to climate change. A survey of 1080 herder households was conducted in six rangeland regions of Inner Mongolia in northern China to investigate relationships between herder’s perceptions and actual climate change. Across all six regions, more than 90% of herders perceived a decline in precipitation in the past 30 years, whereas actual data showed no significant change. Many herders also perceived an increase in temperature, which was in agreement with the temperature data, although the proportion of herders who perceived a change in temperature differed among regions. A further survey of 58 households was conducted to better understand the reasons for these differences, by simultaneously surveying their perceptions of the changes in both rainfall and rangeland condition. The results showed that the herders’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall could be influenced by their perceptions of the changes in the condition of their rangeland (reductions in production). An alternative explanation could relate to rainfall being interpreted in terms of the frequency and pattern rather than the absolute amounts. These findings have important implications for understanding how herders’ perceptions can improve their adaptive behavioural responses to climate change.